Are Gasoline Cars Really Disappearing? What France's Auto Market Actually Tells Us in 2026

December 2025 marked a watershed moment for European automotive policy. The European Commission officially scrapped its 2035 ban on new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, replacing it with a flexible 90% emissions-reduction target supported by carbon-credit mechanisms. For industry observers, this wasn't just a policy adjustment, but also reflected a market reality that data had been signaling for years.

 

 

The narrative that gasoline and diesel cars are vanishing has outpaced the actual market, particularly in France, Europe's second-largest automotive market. This article examines what the numbers really show, why France's position matters, and what it means for automotive industry professionals navigating the transition.

 

 

 

Media coverage often presents electric vehicles (EVs) as overwhelmingly dominant, but France's 2025-2026 data tells a different story. While EV adoption is accelerating, internal combustion engines remain deeply embedded in the market.

 

Key market indicators:

Metric	Data Point	Context
EV Market Share (2025)	~15.8%	257,022 EV units sold, slight growth (+1.2% YoY)
EV Market Share (2026 YTD)	20.1%	Early 2026 momentum, but still under 1/5 of total sales
Overall Market Decline (2025)	-5.1%	Total sales dropped from 1.72M to 1.63M units
Overall Market Decline (2026 YTD)	-11.1%	Continued contraction, not a smooth electrification handover

 

The headline statistic, EVs reaching 20% share in early 2026, is significant, but it obscures a critical fact: roughly 80% of French car purchases in early 2026 were still ICE or hybrid vehicles. Moreover, the overall market is contracting, not transitioning in a one-for-one replacement pattern.

 

Top-selling models in early 2026 reinforce this reality:

1. Renault Clio: Leading sales (ICE/hybrid variants dominant)
2. Citroën C3: Strong ICE sales despite recent facelift
3. Dacia Sandero: Value-oriented ICE models maintaining demand

 

These are not vehicles driving an electric revolution, but are gasoline and diesel-powered workhorses that continue to form France's automotive backbone.

 

 

The European Union's policy reversal in December 2025 fundamentally changed the regulatory landscape. What was framed as an absolute ban evolved into a nuanced carbon credit system:

 

Key provisions of the revised framework:

• ICE vehicles can continue after 2035, provided manufacturers offset emissions
• Carbon credits available through low-carbon steel production and e-fuel deployment
• Super-credits for affordable EVs under 4.2 meters in length
• Reduced targets for commercial vehicles (trucks and vans)

 

France's stance: The French government opposed this flexibility, with Environment Minister Monique Barbier stating regret over the concessions. France, alongside Spain and Nordic countries, argued that weakening the 2035 target would decelerate electrification and undermine green investment.

 

This opposition matters because it reveals the tension within EU member states between policy ambition and industrial reality. France's domestic market data, where ICE vehicles remain dominant despite EV growth, suggests the opposition was driven by long-term climate strategy rather than short-term market reflection.

 

 

France occupies a distinctive position in the European transition matrix. Several structural factors shape its ICE persistence:

 

1. Nuclear Power Advantage, Not Disadvantage

France generates over 70% of its electricity from nuclear power. This means EVs in France have a significantly lower carbon footprint than in coal-heavy grids. However, this environmental advantage does not automatically translate to consumer adoption. Charging infrastructure gaps, upfront cost barriers, and range anxiety persist despite the availability of clean electricity.

 

2. Diverging OEM Strategies

Stellantis (Peugeot/Citroën's parent) and Renault have pursued different pathways:

• Renault: Accelerating electrification, with models like the new Renault 5 driving EV momentum
• Stellantis: More measured approach, maintaining strong ICE portfolio while expanding hybrid options

This strategic divergence reflects broader market uncertainty. French OEMs are hedging rather than going all-in on electric.

 

3. Market Structure Beyond Passenger Cars

France's automotive ecosystem extends beyond consumer vehicles. Commercial fleets, industrial machinery, and heavy-duty transportation operate on longer replacement cycles. These sectors depend on ICE reliability and infrastructure that electrification has yet to match cost-effectively.

 

4. Export Orientation

French OEMs export significant volumes to markets with slower electrification adoption:

• North Africa and the Middle East: Strong demand for ICE vehicles
• Eastern Europe and parts of Asia: Hybrid and ICE dominance continues

 

This export dependence sustains ICE production capacity in France, even as domestic EV sales grow.

 

 

The European ICE conversation often assumes Europe drives global standards. However, developing markets tell a different story.

 

ICE market projections remain robust:

• Global ICE vehicle market valued at $2.5 trillion in 2025
• Projected 2% CAGR through 2033, growth, not decline
• France's domestic ICE market alone is projected to reach $132.8 billion by 2032 (5.1% CAGR)

 

This divergence creates a strategic reality: while European regulators push toward electrification, global demand continues to sustain ICE technology development and production.

 

What this means for manufacturing:

• European OEMs face dual-platform requirements (ICE for export, EV for domestic)
• Supply chain partners must support both ICE and electric vehicle needs
• Transition timelines extend beyond 2035 for export-oriented manufacturers

 

 

The French market reality offers strategic clarity for automotive industry professionals.

 

For OEMs

 

The transition is not binary. Maintaining ICE and hybrid capabilities alongside EV development is not a regression, but is a market-aligned strategy. Export markets and domestic demand segments continue to require ICE powertrains through at least the 2030s.

 

For Tier 1 and Tier 2 Suppliers

 

Dual-platform expertise is now a competitive advantage. Suppliers who can deliver components for both ICE vehicles and EVs are better positioned to weather market volatility and regulatory shifts.

 

For companies manufacturing precision steel tubes and processed tube parts, critical components in exhaust systems, chassis structures, and battery enclosures, this creates specific strategic implications:

• Exhaust system components (tubes, manifolds, mufflers, flex pipes) remain essential for ICE vehicles and hybrids in the near-to-medium term
• Structural tube components increasingly serve dual purposes: traditional chassis reinforcement in ICE vehicles and battery pack support structures in EVs
• Material expertise becomes cross-platform: high-strength steel grades required for ICE durability also support EV structural integrity requirements

 

For Supply Chain Decision-Makers

 

The most resilient partners in this transition are those with flexible manufacturing capabilities and material versatility. Manufacturers who can produce precision steel components for both ICE and EV applications, while maintaining quality standards like IATF 16949 and delivering reliable logistics across global markets, provide strategic value in uncertain transition periods.

 

 

The narrative that gasoline and diesel cars are disappearing is not supported by France's market data or the EU's regulatory recalibration. EVs are gaining momentum, but internal combustion engines remain deeply embedded in France's automotive landscape, domestically through consumer preference and globally through export demand.

 

For automotive industry professionals, the takeaway is clear: the transition is real, but it is neither linear nor complete. Strategic planning must account for sustained ICE demand alongside accelerating EV adoption. The winners in this environment will be those who can navigate both realities, manufacturing excellence for today's ICE requirements while developing capabilities for tomorrow's electric future.

 

This is not about choosing sides. It's about understanding what the market actually demands and building the flexibility to deliver it.

 

 

 

Q: Will ICE vehicles be banned in Europe after 2035?

A: No. The EU scrapped the absolute ban in December 2025. ICE vehicles can continue with emissions offset through carbon credits and e-fuels.

 

Q: What is France's position on the 2035 ICE phase-out?

A: France opposed the EU's relaxation of the 2035 target, arguing it would slow electrification progress and undermine climate goals.

 

Q: What is France's current EV market share?

A: EVs reached approximately 15.8% in 2025 and accelerated to 20.1% in early 2026, but the majority of sales remain ICE or hybrid vehicles.

 

Q: Is the global ICE market growing or declining?

A: The global ICE market is growing, valued at $2.5 trillion in 2025 with a projected 2% CAGR through 2033.

 

Q: What does this mean for automotive suppliers?

A: Suppliers benefit from maintaining dual-platform capabilities (ICE + EV). Component manufacturers, especially those producing versatile steel tube parts for exhaust systems and structural applications, see sustained demand across both vehicle types.